Quick Take
- Bitcoin’s monthly average correlation with Nasdaq 100 reached its highest point since September 2022; Crypto.com received an in-principle approval for its Markets in Crypto Assets (MiCA) license; BlackRock launched its bitcoin ETF on Cboe Canada.
- US spot bitcoin ETFs had a net inflow of US$1.9 billion last week. Spot ether ETFs saw a net inflow of $212 million last week.
- On the macro side, the US core consumer price index (excluding food and energy) increased 3.2% year-on-year, slightly below the 3.3% forecasted by economists surveyed by Dow Jones. The International Monetary Fund raised its real GDP growth forecast for the US to 2.7% in 2025, up from 2.2%. The latest CME FedWatch Tool showed a 0% probability of a January rate cut in the US (vs 3% last week). In China, the Q4 GDP grew by 5.4% year-on-year, higher than economists’ expectations of 5%. China’s economy grew 5% overall in 2024, in line with the government’s growth target.
- Notable updates: Algorand’s (ALGO) v4 mainnet upgrade was approved; the Crypto.com App listed Official Trump (TRUMP), Melania Meme (MELANIA), DAR Open Network (D), and Toshi (TOSHI).
- Notable events in the coming week: US presidential inauguration and Bank of Japan’s interest rate decision
Weekly Market Index
All three market indices increased last week. Price, volume, and volatility indices were up by +11.19%, +37.09%, and +2.63%, respectively.
The broader cryptocurrency market rallied at the beginning of last week before retracing at the end. This coincided with reports that US president-elect Donald Trump is expected to issue an executive order to create a crypto advisory council and elevate crypto as a policy priority.
SOL (+31.51%) and LINK (+23.03%) led the increase. SOL reached an all-time high of $293 on 19 January, which coincided with the launch of the Official Trump (TRUMP) meme coin on the Solana blockchain. There were also reports that Trump is “receptive” to the idea of establishing a strategic reserve prioritising crypto, including USDC, SOL, and XRP. LINK’s increase coincided with the Cross-Chain Interoperability Protocol (CCIP) v1.5 upgrade and the Cross-Chain Token (CCT) standard, which is expected to allow ERC-20 tokens to operate natively across multiple chains.
Chart of the Week
Bitcoin’s 30-day correlation with the Nasdaq 100 increased since the end of 2024, reaching a two-year peak of 0.77 on 31 December 2024 and 0.70 on 17 January 2025. In terms of monthly average (average of the daily 30-day correlation in the month), the correlation between bitcoin and Nasdaq 100 in January (month-to-date) reached 0.71, a level unseen since September 2022. This reflects bitcoin price’s higher sensitivity towards broader economic data.
Weekly Performance
BTC increased by +7.5% while ETH decreased by -0.9%, respectively, in the past seven days. Prices of other selected top market capitalisation tokens were mixed.
Key categories showed mixed changes in market capitalisation in the past seven days. Meme led the increase while gaming led the decrease.
Notable Updates
| Token | Ticker | MC | 7D (%) | Category | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ethereum | ETH | $391.4B | -0.9% | L1 | Ethereum developers set the Pectra upgrade’s target release date in March. The upgrade is expected to bring improvements to users’ wallet experience and increase validators’ maximum staking balance. |
| Algorand | ALGO | $3.3B | +6.8% | L1 | Algorand Foundation announced that the v4 mainnet upgrade was approved, which will allow consensus participants to opt in to staking rewards. The blocks are expected to start including rewards on 23 January. |
| Token | Ethereum |
|---|---|
| Ticker | ETH |
| MC | $391.4B |
| 7D (%) | -0.9% |
| Category | L1 |
| Remarks | Ethereum developers set the Pectra upgrade’s target release date in March. The upgrade is expected to bring improvements to users’ wallet experience and increase validators’ maximum staking balance. |
| Token | Algorand |
| Ticker | ALGO |
| MC | $3.3B |
| 7D (%) | +6.8% |
| Category | L1 |
| Remarks | Algorand Foundation announced that the v4 mainnet upgrade was approved, which will allow consensus participants to opt in to staking rewards. The blocks are expected to start including rewards on 23 January. |
Newly Listed Tokens in the Crypto.com App
| Token | Ticker | MC | 7D (%) | Category | Remarks |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Official Trump | TRUMP | $9.9B | +546.5% | Meme | TRUMP is a Solana-based meme coin launched by US president-elect Donald Trump. |
| Melania Meme | MELANIA | $1.7B | +45.9% | Meme | MELANIA is a Solana based memecoin launched by first-lady-in-waiting Melania Trump. |
| Toshi | TOSHI | $160M | +187.7% | Meme | TOSHI is a meme coin inspired by Coinbase Co-founder Brian Armstrong’s cat, who’s named after Satoshi Nakamoto. The token aims to become the face of Base, the Ethereum Layer-2 blockchain created by Coinbase. |
| DAR Open Network | D | $66M | -45.3% | Infrastructure | DAR Open Network is an AI-powered, chain-agnostic infrastructure enabling Web 3 app development. It aims to foster a community-led ecosystem where applications can leverage shared technology and assets. D token serves as the utility token with staking and governance capabilities. |
| Token | Official Trump |
|---|---|
| Ticker | TRUMP |
| MC | $9.9B |
| 7D (%) | +546.5% |
| Category | Meme |
| Remarks | TRUMP is a Solana-based meme coin launched by US president-elect Donald Trump. |
| Token | Melania Meme |
| Ticker | MELANIA |
| MC | $1.7B |
| 7D (%) | +45.9% |
| Category | Meme |
| Remarks | MELANIA is a Solana based memecoin launched by first-lady-in-waiting Melania Trump. |
| Token | Toshi |
| Ticker | TOSHI |
| MC | $160M |
| 7D (%) | +187.7% |
| Category | Meme |
| Remarks | TOSHI is a meme coin inspired by Coinbase Co-founder Brian Armstrong’s cat, who’s named after Satoshi Nakamoto. The token aims to become the face of Base, the Ethereum Layer-2 blockchain created by Coinbase. |
| Token | DAR Open Network |
| Ticker | D |
| MC | $66M |
| 7D (%) | -45.3% |
| Category | Infrastructure |
| Remarks | DAR Open Network is an AI-powered, chain-agnostic infrastructure enabling Web 3 app development. It aims to foster a community-led ecosystem where applications can leverage shared technology and assets. D token serves as the utility token with staking and governance capabilities. |
News Highlights
Crypto.com News
- Crypto.com received an in-principle approval of the MiCA licence. This will enable the company to provide its range of crypto services across the European Union under the new regulatory framework.
Regulation / Policy
- Several ETF filings were submitted to the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) last week ahead of the current SEC Chair Gary Gensler’s expected departure on 20 January. This includes ProShares’s application for a Solana Futures ETF and leveraged, inverse, and futures XRP ETFs; CoinShares’s Digital Asset ETF; VanEck’s Onchain Economy ETF; and Canary Capital’s amended S-1 filing for a spot Litecoin ETF.
- Thailand’s Securities and Exchange Commission is considering approving bitcoin ETFs to list on local exchanges, potentially allowing individual and institutional investments in local bitcoin ETFs.
- Bank of England will launch its ‘Digital Pound Lab’ this year as part of a potential central bank digital currency (CBDC). The lab will collaborate with the private sector to experiment with CBDC APIs, aiming to add value to the UK’s payments and technology sectors.
Adoption
- BlackRock launched its bitcoin ETF on the Canadian securities exchange, Cboe Canada, on 13 January. Named iShares Bitcoin ETF, the ETF will provide Canadian investors access to the company’s US spot bitcoin ETF, iShares Bitcoin Trust (IBIT).
- Switzerland’s state-owned bank, PostFinance, is offering Ethereum staking to its 2.7 million customers. The service will be offered for a fixed minimum term of twelve weeks.
- Italy’s largest bank by assets, Intesa Sanpaolo, purchased 11 BTC (~$1 million). According to Reuters, the bank also has a proprietary trading desk for digital assets to handle spot trading for other cryptocurrencies.
- The US state of Wyoming introduced a bill to create a strategic bitcoin reserve, joining other US states that took similar action in the last few weeks. If passed, this will allow Wyoming’s treasury to invest a part of its state funds in bitcoin. Oklahoma also introduced the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve Act last week; if approved, it will allow pension funds and state savings accounts to allocate assets to bitcoin.
Recent Research Reports
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